Card Counting in Blackjack
If you have an interest in blackjack, you've likely heard of the concept of card counting. It's much talked about among gamblers as it is a way to have an edge over the casino and win over the long term.
However, it's something that's incredibly hard to do in a casino environment, and even players who know the fundamentals of card counting may find it difficult to execute.
That being said, it still garners a lot of interest from blackjack players – beginners and experts alike – as they try to improve their game. We're here to give you a breakdown of exactly what card counting is, how it works, the different card counting systems, the risks, and the benefits.
How card counting works
Card counting is a method used to keep track of the high and low-value cards that have already been dealt to give you an idea of what the rest of the shoe looks like.
If you know that a lot of low-value cards have been dealt, then you know that a lot of high-value cards are left in the deck. With more high-value cards in the deck, you're more likely to make stronger hands and win, so you can increase the size of your bets to take advantage of this.
Running count
The way this is done is by assigning each card a numerical value and keeping a "running count" as the cards are being dealt. As you make your way through the shoe, the running count will tell you what the rest of the deck is comprised of.
True count
To account for this, card counters also have another number in their heads – the true count. This is found by taking the running count and dividing it by the number of decks that are left in the shoe.
Knowing the true count is important, as having a running count of +4 with five decks remaining is very different from a running count of +4 with only one deck remaining. In the first example, there is less than one additional high card per deck left in the shoe, so the odds haven't moved in the player's favor just yet.
Deck penetration
A term you'll come across in card counting circles is deck penetration. Casinos have gotten wise to the fact that people can count cards and predict the value of cards that are going to come next. This advantage is greater with fewer cards in the deck, as the fewer cards that remain, the easier it is to guess which cards are left.
To combat this, the casino will not let players play until the shoe runs out of cards. Instead, they will place a cutting card part way into the shoe which signals that the deck needs to be shuffled and put back. How far down the shoe the casinos will go is called the deck penetration.
As the true count rises, the card counter needs to raise their bets to take advantage of it. If they don't, they won't make a profit in the long run.
Why people count cards
That last sentence is the crux of why people count cards in blackjack. If they're good enough at it and are able to execute it in a casino environment, it puts the odds in their favor and theoretically allows them to profit at the blackjack table. Lots of players dream about being able to consistently make money from the casino, and card counting is the only legitimate way to do it (besides working there and receiving an hourly wage).
This allure of profitability draws people to blackjack and, specifically, card counting. In an environment that is built to take money from you, there's something appealing about turning the tables around and taking your money right back – plus a little extra.
However, it's not a case of learning a simple system and walking out of the casino with arms full of cash. It takes a lot of practice and dedication to become a consistent card counter, and even then, you have to avoid getting caught.
While it's not against the law to count cards, casinos don't like people making money off of them and will swiftly ban any player thought to be counting cards in their establishment.
Card counting systems
Many different card counting strategies have been developed over the years, each with varying levels of complexity and accuracy. The more complex the strategy is, the bigger edge it gives you as a player, but the harder it is to execute. If you're serious about card counting, you have to decide which strategy is right for you and how much of an edge you want to trade to be able to pull it off at a casino.
As well as a table of the strategy, we're going to look at three main components of the strategy, which determine its usefulness at the tables.
- Betting correlation: This shows how effective the strategy is at predicting valuable betting situations akin to a computer. The closer this value is to 1, the better it is.
- Playing efficiency: This measures how effective the strategy is at determining correct strategy deviations. Again, the closer this value is to 1, the better it is.
- Insurance correlation: This shows how effective the strategy is at indicating when to buy insurance. (Strategies with a dedicated ace side count will naturally be better at this). The closer the value to 1, the better it is.
Hi-Lo
This is the strategy that most people think of when it comes to card counting. It's easy to learn and isn't very complicated. Any card 6 or lower is +1, any 7, 8, or 9 is 0, and any card 10 or above is -1. This strategy can be used in multi-deck games, and the only thing a player needs to do is convert the running count to the total count.
Betting Correlation: 0.97
Playing Efficiency: 0.51
Insurance Correlation: 0.76
| Card Rank | Assigned Value |
|---|---|
| 2 | +1 |
| 3 | +1 |
| 4 | +1 |
| 5 | +1 |
| 6 | +1 |
| 7 | 0 |
| 8 | 0 |
| 9 | 0 |
| T | -1 |
| J | -1 |
| Q | -1 |
| K | -1 |
| A | -1 |
Hi-Opt I
The next system we're going to look at is based on the Hi-Lo count with a couple of differences. The two and the ace are both assigned a value of 0, rather than the +1 and -1 values that they have in Hi-Lo.
This was not initially designed to be used as a stand-alone strategy but instead as a stepping stone to Hi-Opt II or to be used with a running side count of aces to indicate when to increase bet sizes.
Betting Correlation: 0.88
Playing Efficiency: 0.61
Insurance Correlation: 0.85
| Card Rank | Assigned Value |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| 3 | +1 |
| 4 | +1 |
| 5 | +1 |
| 6 | +1 |
| 7 | 0 |
| 8 | 0 |
| 9 | 0 |
| T | -1 |
| J | -1 |
| Q | -1 |
| K | -1 |
| A | 0 |
Hi-Opt II
Hi-Opt II, as the name suggests, is the second version of the Hi-Opt strategy developed by Lance Humble and Carl Cooper. This method is more advanced than the Hi-Opt II strategy, as cards can be assigned a value of +2 or -2 as well as +1 or -1. While this makes the count harder to perform, it increases the strategy's efficiency.
Betting Correlation: 0.91
Playing Efficiency: 0.67
Insurance Correlation: 0.91
| Card Rank | Assigned Value |
|---|---|
| 2 | +1 |
| 3 | +1 |
| 4 | +2 |
| 5 | +2 |
| 6 | +1 |
| 7 | +1 |
| 8 | 0 |
| 9 | 0 |
| T | -2 |
| J | -2 |
| Q | -2 |
| K | -2 |
| A | 0 |
Knock Out
While all previous systems have started the running count at 0, the Knock Out system has a variable running count start depending on the number of decks used in the game.
- 1 Deck: 0 starting count
- 2 Decks: -4 starting count
- 6 Decks: -20 starting count
- 8 Decks: -28 starting count
As you can see, the more decks there are, the lower the starting count is. Another differing feature of this method compared to others is that you do not need to convert the running count to the true count.
Betting Correlation: 0.98
Playing Efficiency: 0.55
Insurance Correlation: 0.78
| Card Rank | Assigned Value |
|---|---|
| 2 | +1 |
| 3 | +1 |
| 4 | +1 |
| 5 | +1 |
| 6 | +1 |
| 7 | +1 |
| 8 | 0 |
| 9 | 0 |
| T | -1 |
| J | -1 |
| Q | -1 |
| K | -1 |
| A | -1 |
Omega II
Omega II is another second-level card counting system, meaning that cards can be assigned a value of + or -2 as well as + or -1. This is considered a system for experienced card counters and should not be used by beginners until they have a deep understanding of the game and how to card count.
As with most advanced strategies where the ace is assigned a value of 0, Omega II expects you to keep a running count of aces. When betting using Omega II, you raise your bet with the value of the true count, meaning if the true count is +3, you bet three units.
Betting Correlation: 0.92
Playing Efficiency: 0.67
Insurance Correlation: 0.85
| Card Rank | Assigned Value |
|---|---|
| 2 | +1 |
| 3 | +1 |
| 4 | +2 |
| 5 | +2 |
| 6 | +2 |
| 7 | +1 |
| 8 | 0 |
| 9 | -1 |
| T | -2 |
| J | -2 |
| Q | -2 |
| K | -2 |
| A | 0 |
Zen Count
Another second level strategy, Zen Count is similar to Omega II with a couple of key differences. In this strategy, the 9 is given a value of 0, whereas the aces are given a value of -1. Given that the aces have been given a value in this strategy, there is no need to keep a separate running count. This makes it slightly easier to implement at the tables.
Just like in Omega II, the betting pattern is to increase your betting units in tandem with the increase of the true count.
Betting Correlation: 0.96
Playing Efficiency: 0.63
Insurance Correlation: 0.85
| Card Rank | Assigned Value |
|---|---|
| 2 | +1 |
| 3 | +1 |
| 4 | +2 |
| 5 | +2 |
| 6 | +2 |
| 7 | +1 |
| 8 | 0 |
| 9 | 0 |
| T | -2 |
| J | -2 |
| Q | -2 |
| K | -2 |
| A | -1 |
Wong Halves
Without a doubt the hardest strategy on our list, the Wong Halves system uses values of +0.5 and -0.5 in its count. While we're dealing with the same number of combinations as other second-level strategies, humans find it much harder to think in fractional numbers, making it harder to implement at the tables.
Betting Correlation: 0.99
Playing Efficiency: 0.56
Insurance Correlation: 0.72
| Card Rank | Assigned Value |
|---|---|
| 2 | +0.5 |
| 3 | +1 |
| 4 | +1 |
| 5 | +1 |
| 6 | +1 |
| 7 | +0.5 |
| 8 | 0 |
| 9 | -0.5 |
| T | -1 |
| J | -1 |
| Q | -1 |
| K | -1 |
| A | -1 |
How to choose a card counting strategy
There's quite a lot to choose from there and we've only just scratched the surface of blackjack card counting strategies. There are plenty more that we haven't listed here, as these are the most popular ones people use. Now that you know how each of these strategies works, how do you go about picking one?
One of the most obvious ways would be to look at the numbers, see which one performs the best, and pick that one, right? Well, that might seem like a good idea, but you're quickly going to run into a problem. The problem is that the better performing a strategy is, the harder it is to implement.
It takes hours and hours of practice to get card counting down to the point where you can master it on your own in complete silence, let alone in a busy casino with a dealer and pit floor watching you. A lot of people underestimate how tough it is to actually count cards in a casino environment and quickly find themselves struggling with even the most basic strategies.
This is why it's better for beginner players to practice with the easiest strategies first. Learn how to completely master one of those and use that as a springboard to branch out into other strategies once you have the confidence to do so.
Card counting basic strategy deviations
When you learn how to card count, there's more to it than just learning the mechanics of keeping track of the cards; you also have to learn the deviations for that strategy. As the true count increases, the Expected Value (EV) of different actions changes.
EXAMPLE
For example, when the count gets high enough, splitting tens becomes a +EV strategy - something that would never be done under ordinary rules.
While the true count is used to track betting increases, it's also used to track when you should make strategic deviations. As an example, here are the deviations you should make in a 6-8 deck game when using the Hi-Lo strategy where the dealer stands on soft 17. As a note, the Index Number refers to the true count. When referring to deviations, the count at which the deviation occurs is always referred to as the Index Number.
| Situation | Index Number | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | +3 | Take insurance at +3 or above. |
| 16 vs. 9 | +5 | Stand at +5 or above. |
| 16 vs. 10 | 0 | Stand at 0 or above. |
| 15 vs. 10 | +4 | Stand at +4 or above. |
| 13 vs. 2 | -1 | Stand at -1 or above; otherwise hit. |
| 13 vs. 3 | -2 | Stand at -2 or above; otherwise hit. |
| 12 vs. 2 | +4 | Stand at +4 or above. |
| 12 vs. 3 | +2 | Stand at +2 or above. |
| 12 vs. 4 | 0 | Stand at 0 or above. |
| 12 vs. 5 | -1 | Stand at -1 or above; otherwise hit. |
| 12 vs. 6 | -1 | Stand at -1 or above; otherwise hit. |
| 11 vs. A | +1 | Double down at +1 or above; otherwise hit. |
| 10 vs. 10 | +4 | Double down at +4 or above. |
| 10 vs. A | +4 | Double down at +4 or above. |
| 9 vs. 2 | +1 | Double down at +1 or above. |
| 9 vs. 7 | +4 | Double down at +4 or above. |
| 10-10 vs. 5 | +5 | Split at +5 or above. |
| 10-10 vs. 6 | +5 | Split at +5 or above. |
This list isn't the total number of deviations you can make using this strategy! This is known as the "Illustrious 18" and is the 18 most profitable deviations you can make. Using these deviations will increase your edge by 10% over using a card counting strategy without deviations, so they're worth learning.
How feasible is card counting?
Now that you've learned all the systems and the deviations, you're probably in the middle of finding the largest bag you can find to take to the casino so you can carry home all the cash you're going to make, right? Well, in reality, card counting isn't as easy as walking into the casino and walking out a couple of hours later with a lot more money.
It takes a lot of hard work and dedication to become good enough at card counting that you can give yourself an edge. Plus, once you're done learning at home, you need to try and take what you've learned into a casino environment. The game moves incredibly fast, there are flashing lights and loud noises all over the place, and you have people constantly interrupting your train of thought.
Even if you decide to do it online, where you can shut yourself away from all those distractions, you're going to run into other issues. The main issue is that online card counting doesn't work unless you pick a live dealer game. The standard game you see online does not use a continuous deck and will shuffle after each hand. Even the live dealer games have very poor deck penetration to the point where it's just about impossible to be profitable.
Furthermore, even if you find a good game and perfect your skills, you may run into issues. The thing is, online casinos and companies that create online blackjack games know how card counting works and can detect players that are likely to be counting cards. As a result, you may find your account closed or be unable to play blackjack very quickly.
Most people who know the theory behind card counting struggle to actually put it into action. It's a lot harder to pull off than people think.
How to get better at card counting
That being said, if you knuckle down and put the effort in, it is possible to become proficient at card counting. There are ways you can practice to improve your card counting technique, to the point you can execute it at a casino.
- Practice at home - Simply taking a deck of cards and running through it hundreds of times is naturally going to improve your counting. The more you do it, the faster you'll become.
- Watch blackjack videos - Watching videos of other people playing blackjack and trying to keep the count is another good way to practice. Here you get the authentic casino experience as well as the benefit of practicing with the distractions you'll likely see and hear at the casino.
- Blackjack training apps - There are dedicated training apps that help players improve their counting speed as well as their accuracy. They can also help teach you the deviations that you should implement at the tables. Some of these can be expensive, so only invest if you're serious about learning how to card count.
Risks of card counting
While people think of card counting as this infallible way of making money from the casino, there are plenty of risks associated with it. Let's look at what some of those risks are.
Variance
Even though card counting does give you an edge over the casino, the edge itself is very small – probably around 2% at best. This means that the variance you'll likely experience at the table is huge.
You can go on long losing stretches, even if you're playing perfectly. This can take a big toll on people's mental health, as well as their bankroll. If you're not profitably bankrolled for card counting, you can find yourself going broke even if you play perfectly.
Discipline
Part of the problem with high variance is that it's very hard to stay disciplined and stick to your strategy when you're going through a tough spell. It's far too easy to end up gambling and taking -EV plays in an attempt to get even – and before you know it, your edge is completely gone! Making money by card counting requires extreme discipline and often becomes a grind.
Getting caught
As we mentioned earlier, casinos don't take kindly to people trying to win money from them by card counting. So much so that they employ people to watch the blackjack tables to try and catch card counters. Even if you're only suspected of card counting, the casino will, at best, back you off and, at worst, ban you from the property altogether.
Blackjack card counting tips
If you're planning on trying card counting out at a casino, use these helpful tips to improve your overall card counting experience.
- Bring a lot of money - You need a big bankroll to count cards, so make sure you bring plenty of money with you. There's nothing worse than running out of money in the middle of a high count.
- Try to count cards in pairs - If there are two cards of +1, group them together as a +2, and if there's a -1 and a +1, group them together as a 0. Doing this will improve your counting speed, particularly when the first hands are being dealt.
- Act like a tourist - Casinos are looking for people who behave like card counters, so try to dress and act like a tourist would. Take breaks (even better when the count is low), order drinks, and try to act like your main focus isn't making money.
- Increase your bets smoothly - As the count increases, your bets should increase slowly with it. Massive changes in bet size alert casino staff to possible card counters, so going from $5 to $100 is quickly going to tip them off.
- Have fun - The most important thing you can do is have fun. Card counting can quickly become a grind if you're not careful, so remember to enjoy yourself when you're at the tables.
Summary
As tough as it is, card counting is the only legitimate way of being profitable in a casino game over an extended period of time. People have dedicated their lives to this game in an attempt to find the most optimal strategies, and many more have spent years mastering them to be played in the casino.
In the end, the aim of gambling should always be to have fun, and if you have fun learning how to card count, then that's all that matters. However, you should be realistic in your goals and realize just how hard it is to make money from card counting.
